Kayserispor 3-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 36%, yet in-form Sivasspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Sivasspor at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this season: 4W 3D 1L from 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sivasspor — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 56% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Sivasspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.06 xG and Sivasspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.912 / defence 0.915 | Sivasspor attack 0.919 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.125. Data: 18 Kayserispor games / 18 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 36% | Draw 34% | Sivasspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Sivasspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Kayserispor 50% | Sivasspor 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 36% | Draw 34% | Sivasspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Kayserispor 1.06 / Sivasspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.912 / def 0.915 | Sivasspor attack 0.919 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sivasspor xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Kayserispor 3 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 36% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kayserispor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
36%
2.77
34%
2.96
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.01
0.95
Sivasspor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.95 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 6D 7L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 6W 8D 4L from 18 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.17 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 6W 8D 4L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Sivasspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.88 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
1
Draws
5
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sivasspor 5-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 50%, Sivasspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Kayserispor) and 50% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kayserispor's games and 75% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Kayserispor's recent games and 50% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kayserispor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Sivasspor 3-0 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.06 xG and Sivasspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Sivasspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 36% | Draw 34% | Sivasspor 30%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Sivasspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.17 PPG, Sivasspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.