Kayserispor 1-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Konyaspor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Konyaspor (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Kayserispor, 1.60 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kayserispor, 2 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 57% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 57% | Konyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.43 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.121 / defence 0.846 | Konyaspor attack 1.030 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.416. Data: 51 Kayserispor games / 51 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 41% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 41% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Kayserispor 1.43 / Konyaspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.121 / def 0.846 | Konyaspor attack 1.030 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 41% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kayserispor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.12) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.03x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.67
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.66
1.24
Konyaspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.24 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 13D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.75 PPG from 51 outings (25W 14D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.75 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kayserispor's home form reads 14W 5D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.57 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 25W 14D 12L in their last 51 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Konyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.88 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
4
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 52%, Konyaspor 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kayserispor and 60% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Kayserispor's games and 72% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kayserispor's matches and 60% of Konyaspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.43 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against Konyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 41% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 32%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 57%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.37 PPG, Konyaspor 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.