Kayserispor 2-6 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kayserispor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fenerbahçe make the trip to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Fenerbahçe, who have 5 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Kayserispor 0–3 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 57% versus Fenerbahçe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 53% | Fenerbahçe 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kayserispor surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.811 / defence 1.166 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.429 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.293. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.429, which lifts their away xG to 2.15. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 49 games and Fenerbahçe's last 49.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 15% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 63%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 6.49 | Draw 4.61 | Fenerbahçe 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 70% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 15% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Kayserispor 0.99 / Fenerbahçe 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.811 / def 1.166 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.429 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Fenerbahçe xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Kayserispor 2 - 6 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 15% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.43x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 49 games and Fenerbahçe's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
15%
6.49
22%
4.61
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.15
2.15
Fenerbahçe xG
6.49
15%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
12%
8.63
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
2%
55.95
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kayserispor and 2.15 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 18D 18L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 39W 8D 2L from 49 games, 2.55 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.39 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kayserispor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 24 home games (6W 11D 7L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 19W 5D 0L from their last 24 away games — 2.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.57 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 39W 8D 2L in their last 49 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.21 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.58 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Kayserispor 0-4 Fenerbahçe on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Kayserispor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 58%, Fenerbahçe 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kayserispor) and 50% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 58%; Kayserispor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 42% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kayserispor's recent games and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 71% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 2-6 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.15 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.15 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.43 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 15% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 63%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Fenerbahçe 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.