Kayserispor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 5W 3D 2L at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.80 for Adana Demirspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–5 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Adana Demirspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 62% | Adana Demirspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.51 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.923 / defence 0.784 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.972 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.194. Kayserispor's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Kayserispor games / 48 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Adana Demirspor 4.55. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 20% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Kayserispor 1.51 / Adana Demirspor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.923 / def 0.784 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.972 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 50% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (4 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 3 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.97x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.54
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.42
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
5%
20.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.91 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 21W 9D 18L from 48 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 9L across 48 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.90 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 12W 4D 7L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 8W 8D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.06 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 13D 9L in their last 48 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.74 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Kayserispor
6
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 1, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-2 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 44%, Adana Demirspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Kayserispor) and 56% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Kayserispor's games and 74% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Kayserispor's matches and 56% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, as Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.51 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.92 / defence 0.78 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 28% | Adana Demirspor 22%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 62%, Adana Demirspor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.50 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.