Kasımpaşa 1-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 39%, yet in-form Kasımpaşa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season.
Sivasspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Kasımpaşa's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kasımpaşa 1W, Sivasspor 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 59% and Sivasspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 57% | Sivasspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.878 / defence 1.161 | Sivasspor attack 0.796 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.438. Data: 51 Kasımpaşa games / 52 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 33% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 33% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.21 / Sivasspor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.878 / def 1.161 | Sivasspor attack 0.796 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sivasspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 December 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 33% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.80x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.57
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Sivasspor xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.33 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 11D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (16W 17D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.27 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (8W 4D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Sivasspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.28 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 68%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Kasımpaşa and 56% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Kasımpaşa's games and 60% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 56% of Sivasspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Kasımpaşa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Sivasspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 33% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 39%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 57%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.33 PPG, Sivasspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.