Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Kasımpaşa's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3W, Sivasspor 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 66% and Sivasspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.25 xG and Sivasspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.211 / defence 1.310 | Sivasspor attack 0.844 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.175. Data: 68 Kasımpaşa games / 68 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Sivasspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.25 / Sivasspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.211 / def 1.310 | Sivasspor attack 0.844 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sivasspor xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 59% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.21x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.84x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
59%
1.71
20%
4.92
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.55
1.30
Sivasspor xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
11%
9.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
2%
45.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.30 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 68 games, going 25W 20D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 68 outings (22W 19D 27L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.25 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 33 outings (9W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 25W 20D 23L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 22W 19D 27L in their last 68 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Sivasspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.48 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Sivasspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kasımpaşa and 58% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 58% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 58% of Sivasspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Sivasspor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.25 xG and Sivasspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.31 against Sivasspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 21%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Sivasspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.