Kasımpaşa 0-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sivasspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3W, Sivasspor 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 62% and Sivasspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.77 xG and Sivasspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.141 / defence 1.300 | Sivasspor attack 0.946 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.193. Data: 63 Kasımpaşa games / 63 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 70% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.77 / Sivasspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.141 / def 1.300 | Sivasspor attack 0.946 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sivasspor xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 43% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.95x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.62
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.24
1.47
Sivasspor xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.47 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 13D 27L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.24 PPG from 63 outings (20W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.24 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 13W 6D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (11W 4D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 13D 27L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 20W 18D 25L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Sivasspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.45 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 71%, Sivasspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Kasımpaşa and 64% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Kasımpaşa's games and 58% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 64% of Sivasspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, as Kasımpaşa and Sivasspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.77 xG and Sivasspor 1.47 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.14 / defence 1.30 against Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 30%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sivasspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG, Sivasspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.