Kasımpaşa 2-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 31 as Kasımpaşa welcome Gaziantep FK to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Kasımpaşa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Gaziantep FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 63% versus Gaziantep FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 53% | Gaziantep FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.78 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.096 / defence 1.235 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.601 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.260. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Kasımpaşa games / 30 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Gaziantep FK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Gaziantep FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.78 / Gaziantep FK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.096 / def 1.235 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.601 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gaziantep FK xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 57% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.21
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.71
0.94
Gaziantep FK xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
30.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.94 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 10W 8D 12L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 11W 7D 12L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.27 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 11L from 15 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.47 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 73%, Gaziantep FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kasımpaşa) and 47% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Kasımpaşa's games and 40% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 47% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.78 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.10 / defence 1.24 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.60 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 57% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 19%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 53%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.