Kasımpaşa 2-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Kasımpaşa welcome Gaziantep FK to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 January 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 1.70 (Gaziantep FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gaziantep FK in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Gaziantep FK 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 65% versus Gaziantep FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 63% | Gaziantep FK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.834 / defence 1.120 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.973 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.207. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Kasımpaşa games / 54 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Gaziantep FK 3.85. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.81 / Gaziantep FK 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.834 / def 1.120 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.973 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Gaziantep FK xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 4W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.77
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.13
1.32
Gaziantep FK xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.32 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 16D 18L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 18W 11D 25L from 54 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.41 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 3D 17L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.37 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
4
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Gaziantep FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 63%, Gaziantep FK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Kasımpaşa and 70% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 26% of games; Gaziantep FK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Kasımpaşa's games and 59% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 70% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK finished level at 2-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.97 / defence 1.35, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 63%, Gaziantep FK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.41 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.