Kasımpaşa 2-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Başakşehir's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Kasımpaşa, 1.70 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 62% versus Başakşehir 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 59% | Başakşehir 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.241 / defence 1.130 | Başakşehir attack 0.890 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.238. Data: 34 Kasımpaşa games / 34 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 32%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Başakşehir 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.41 / Başakşehir 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.241 / def 1.130 | Başakşehir attack 0.890 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Başakşehir xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.89x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.40
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Başakşehir xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.25 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 8D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.68 PPG from 34 outings (17W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.68 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 17W 6D 11L in their last 34 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Başakşehir away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.65 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
9
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Başakşehir have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 71%, Başakşehir 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kasımpaşa) and 47% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Kasımpaşa's games and 59% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 47% of Başakşehir's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Başakşehir defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 2-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.24 / defence 1.13 against Başakşehir attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 39% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 32%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 59%, Başakşehir 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG, Başakşehir 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.