Hatayspor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Hatayspor welcome Sivasspor to Mersin Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mersin Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sivasspor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hatayspor, 2 for Sivasspor and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 66% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.64 xG and Sivasspor 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.014 / defence 1.111 | Sivasspor attack 0.992 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.154. Data: 61 Hatayspor games / 61 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 44% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Sivasspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sivasspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 90% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 44% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Hatayspor 1.64 / Sivasspor 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.014 / def 1.111 | Sivasspor attack 0.992 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sivasspor xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 44% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hatayspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Record (5 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.01) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.44
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.27
Sivasspor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.27 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 12W 15D 34L from 61 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 25L across 61 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 0.84 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 8W 10D 12L from 30 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 11W 3D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 12W 15D 34L in their last 61 games (0.84 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.13 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 53%, Sivasspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hatayspor and 67% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 40% of games; Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Hatayspor's games and 57% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hatayspor's matches and 67% of Sivasspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Sivasspor finished level at 1-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.64 xG and Sivasspor 1.27 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 44% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 27%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 66%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.84 PPG, Sivasspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.