Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hatayspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hatayspor at Mersin Stadyumu this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Fenerbahçe in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 60% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 53% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 3.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.907 / defence 1.377 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.707 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.296. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.707 — the away xG of 3.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Hatayspor games / 72 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 11% | Draw 14% | Fenerbahçe 75%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 9.09 | Draw 7.14 | Fenerbahçe 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 3.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 80% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 11% | Draw 14% | Fenerbahçe 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 65% | xG Hatayspor 1.14 / Fenerbahçe 3.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.907 / def 1.377 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.707 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
3.05
Fenerbahçe xG
65%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Hatayspor 4 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 11% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 75% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (7 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.71x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 3.05.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-3 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 0-3 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
11%
9.24
14%
7.22
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
0 – 3
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
4.19
3.05
Fenerbahçe xG
9.24
11%
Home win
7.22
14%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
5%
21.07
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
1%
194.76
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hatayspor and 3.05 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 72 games, going 14W 22D 36L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.50 PPG from 72 outings (56W 12D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.61 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 10W 12D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.53 points per game from 36 outings (28W 7D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.57 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 14W 22D 36L in their last 72 games (0.89 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 56W 12D 4L in their last 72 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.53 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 4-0 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
0
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 69%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hatayspor) and 53% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hatayspor's games and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hatayspor's recent games and 53% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fenerbahçe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Fenerbahçe 4-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 3.05 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.71 / defence 0.79, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 11% | Draw 14% | Fenerbahçe 75%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.