Gaziantep FK 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Trabzonspor travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trabzonspor — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gaziantep FK, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 52% versus Trabzonspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 55% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.53 xG and Trabzonspor 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.212 / defence 1.178 | Trabzonspor attack 1.128 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.238. Data: 31 Gaziantep FK games / 31 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.53 / Trabzonspor 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.212 / def 1.178 | Trabzonspor attack 1.128 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Trabzonspor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
35%
2.84
25%
4.04
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.17
1.64
Trabzonspor xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.64 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 11W 7D 13L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 8D 2L from 31 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 2.27 PPG from 15 outings (10W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 3D 2L from 15 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.90 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 65%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 8D 2L in their last 31 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Trabzonspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.27 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 60%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Gaziantep FK and 60% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gaziantep FK's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 60% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gaziantep FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor finished level at 0-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.53 xG and Trabzonspor 1.64 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 40%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 55%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.