Gaziantep FK 3-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gaziantep FK face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gaziantep FK welcome Eyüpspor to Gaziantep Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.40 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Eyüpspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Gaziantep FK 2–3 Eyüpspor — a Eyüpspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Eyüpspor trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Eyüpspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 58% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.15 xG and Eyüpspor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.819 / defence 0.686 | Eyüpspor attack 0.935 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.191. Gaziantep FK have a tight defence (rating 0.686), which is pulling Eyüpspor's projected output down. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 61 games and Eyüpspor's last 24.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 33% | Eyüpspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.29 | Draw 3.01 | Eyüpspor 4.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 40% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 33% | Eyüpspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.15 / Eyüpspor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.819 / def 0.686 | Eyüpspor attack 0.935 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Eyüpspor xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Monday 3 March 2025 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 44% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.82) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 61 games and Eyüpspor's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.01
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
1.91
0.76
Eyüpspor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.76 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 5D 10L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.33 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 7W 3D 2L across their last 12 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 12 away games (4W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Eyüpspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2026, when Eyüpspor won Eyüpspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
0
Draws
3
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 33%, Eyüpspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Gaziantep FK) and 42% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 58% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 42% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 67% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Eyüpspor 3-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.15 xG and Eyüpspor 0.76 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.82 / defence 0.69 against Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 33% | Eyüpspor 23%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 58%, Eyüpspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.33 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.