Gaziantep FK 3-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Başakşehir travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Başakşehir have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Gaziantep FK's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Başakşehir winning.
It is worth noting that Başakşehir have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Başakşehir trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 55% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 53% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Başakşehir 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / defence 0.876 | Başakşehir attack 0.964 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.293. Data: 49 Gaziantep FK games / 49 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 27%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Başakşehir 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 50% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.43 / Başakşehir 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / def 0.876 | Başakşehir attack 0.964 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 44% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.98) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.44
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Başakşehir xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.09 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 11D 23L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 22W 11D 16L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 10W 5D 9L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.51 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.33 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Başakşehir 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gaziantep FK) and 42% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 29% of games; Başakşehir in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 46% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 42% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Başakşehir 3-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Başakşehir 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 27%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 53%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Gaziantep FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.