Galatasaray 5-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Galatasaray face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Eyüpspor travel to Rams Park to take on Galatasaray. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Galatasaray have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Galatasaray have posted 7W 3D 0L at Rams Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Galatasaray are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Galatasaray have won 2, Eyüpspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Galatasaray winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Galatasaray trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Eyüpspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 56% versus Eyüpspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 67% | Eyüpspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.98 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.457 / defence 0.794 | Eyüpspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.318. Galatasaray carry an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Galatasaray's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Galatasaray games / 57 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 59% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Eyüpspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 70% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rams Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 59% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Galatasaray 1.98 / Eyüpspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.457 / def 0.794 | Eyüpspor attack 0.886 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Eyüpspor xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Rams Park.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor?
Galatasaray 5 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Rams Park.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor part of?
Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 59% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Galatasaray and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Galatasaray 2W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Galatasaray and Eyüpspor in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Galatasaray's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Galatasaray's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.68
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.91
0.93
Eyüpspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
52.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Galatasaray and 0.93 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Galatasaray's recent record stands at 46W 9D 2L from 57 games, a 2.58 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 24L across 57 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Galatasaray have managed 22W 6D 0L from 28 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Galatasaray are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 46W 9D 2L in their last 57 games (2.58 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 19W 14D 24L in their last 57 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Eyüpspor away?
Galatasaray's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 2.57 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Galatasaray or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galatasaray have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Galatasaray have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2025, when Galatasaray won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Galatasaray's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Galatasaray
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Galatasaray 5-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Eyüpspor?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 54%, Eyüpspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Galatasaray) and 43% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Galatasaray's recent matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Galatasaray's matches and 43% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Galatasaray and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Eyüpspor 5-1 at Rams Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.98 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.46 / defence 0.79 against Eyüpspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 59% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 14%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 67%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.