Göztepe 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Beşiktaş travel to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Göztepe have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Göztepe are significantly better at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beşiktaş in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 0, Beşiktaş 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 69% and Beşiktaş 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 61% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.06 xG and Beşiktaş 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.798 / defence 1.721 | Beşiktaş attack 0.871 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.344. Göztepe's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Göztepe games / 36 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 18% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 58%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 18% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Göztepe 1.06 / Beşiktaş 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.798 / def 1.721 | Beşiktaş attack 0.871 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Beşiktaş xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Göztepe 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 18% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Göztepe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
18%
5.67
25%
4.04
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.08
2.02
Beşiktaş xG
5.67
18%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
2%
42.55
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Göztepe and 2.02 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 7D 22L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (14W 13D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Göztepe's home form reads 4W 2D 12L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (4W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.47 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 7W 7D 22L in their last 36 games (0.78 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 14W 13D 9L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 0.78 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Beşiktaş 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Göztepe) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Göztepe have failed to score in 44% of games; Beşiktaş in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Göztepe's games and 67% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Göztepe's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Göztepe 0-2 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.06 xG and Beşiktaş 2.02 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.80 / defence 1.72 against Beşiktaş attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 18% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 58%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 61%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.