Fenerbahçe 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Sivasspor at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 3 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 2.67 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Fenerbahçe 0% | Sivasspor 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fenerbahçe 0% | Sivasspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.46 xG and Sivasspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.047 / defence 1.027 | Sivasspor attack 0.851 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.016. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Fenerbahçe games / 3 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Sivasspor 4.35. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 0% | Sivasspor 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.46 / Sivasspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.047 / def 1.027 | Sivasspor attack 0.851 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sivasspor xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 51% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
51%
1.98
27%
3.76
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.35
0.89
Sivasspor xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
18.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.89 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 0L record — W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 2.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 67%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Sivasspor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fenerbahçe 0% BTTS, Sivasspor 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Fenerbahçe and 67% for Sivasspor.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Sivasspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 67% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 67% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor finished level at 1-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.46 xG and Sivasspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Sivasspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 23%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 0%, Sivasspor 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.