Fenerbahçe 0-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 0.70 PPG lead over Beşiktaş (2.40 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Beşiktaş in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fenerbahçe lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Beşiktaş 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 68% | Beşiktaş 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.62 xG and Beşiktaş 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.373 / defence 1.044 | Beşiktaş attack 0.970 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.196. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.712 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 69 Fenerbahçe games / 69 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 29%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 3.45. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.62 / Beşiktaş 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.373 / def 1.044 | Beşiktaş attack 0.970 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Beşiktaş xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Fenerbahçe 0 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.37) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.97x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.08
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.83
1.21
Beşiktaş xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.21 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 69 games, going 54W 12D 3L for 2.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.57 PPG from 69 outings (30W 18D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 27W 5D 2L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (10W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.59 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.45 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 54W 12D 3L in their last 69 games (2.52 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 30W 18D 21L in their last 69 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.53 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 68%, Beşiktaş 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Fenerbahçe and 41% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fenerbahçe's games and 59% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 41% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fenerbahçe 0-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.62 xG and Beşiktaş 1.21 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fenerbahçe fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.37 / defence 1.04 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.71, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 29%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Beşiktaş 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with Beşiktaş winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.