Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Konyaspor's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.40 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Konyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 58% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 58% | Konyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Konyaspor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.091 / defence 0.830 | Konyaspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.159. Data: 65 Fatih Karagümrük games / 65 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 / Konyaspor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.091 / def 0.830 | Konyaspor attack 0.794 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Konyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 59% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.09x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.79x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.66
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.50
0.76
Konyaspor xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
40.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.76 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 20D 25L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 19W 26D 20L from 65 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.28 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (13W 10D 9L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 9W 13D 10L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 20D 25L in their last 65 games (1.23 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 19W 26D 20L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Konyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.53 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
4
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Konyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 56% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 53% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 56% of Konyaspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Konyaspor 0.76 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Konyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 14%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 58%, Konyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.23 PPG, Konyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.