Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antalyaspor are 0.50 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 4 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 50% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Antalyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.793 / defence 1.307 | Antalyaspor attack 0.712 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.294. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Fatih Karagümrük games / 56 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Antalyaspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 / Antalyaspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.793 / def 1.307 | Antalyaspor attack 0.712 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Antalyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 24% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 2W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 4W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (0.79) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.71x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 20/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
24%
4.22
37%
2.68
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.11
1.20
Antalyaspor xG
4.22
24%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.20 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 0.45 PPG on a 2W 3D 15L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Antalyaspor are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0.50 PPG from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 0.95 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 3D 15L in their last 20 games (0.45 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Antalyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.50 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 30% (Antalyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Fatih Karagümrük and 30% for Antalyaspor.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 50%; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 50% of games; Antalyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 30% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 30% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.31 against Antalyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 20/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 39%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.45. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.