Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Konyaspor travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Eyüpspor at this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Konyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Konyaspor 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.948 / defence 0.932 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 49% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.57. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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