Eyüpspor 1-4 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 44%, yet in-form Konyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Konyaspor travel to Pendik Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 August 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Eyüpspor at Pendik Stadyumu this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Pendik Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eyüpspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Eyüpspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 56% versus Konyaspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 56% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.65 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.035 / defence 1.086 | Konyaspor attack 0.920 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.372. Data: 36 Eyüpspor games / 36 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 60% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Eyüpspor 1.65 / Konyaspor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.035 / def 1.086 | Konyaspor attack 0.920 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 4 Konyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 44% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eyüpspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (1.03) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.16
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.02
1.37
Konyaspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.37 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 8D 13L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. Eyüpspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.28 PPG from 36 outings (13W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. Konyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (4W 2D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Pre-Season
Konyaspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 13W 7D 16L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 56%, Konyaspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Eyüpspor) and 50% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Konyaspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Eyüpspor's games and 61% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eyüpspor's matches and 50% of Konyaspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Eyüpspor 1-4 at Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.65 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 32%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 56%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.