Eyüpspor 0-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Eyüpspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eyüpspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eyüpspor's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 54% and Kasımpaşa 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.87 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.086 / defence 1.233 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.103 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.215. Data: 33 Eyüpspor games / 70 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 34%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Kasımpaşa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Eyüpspor 1.87 / Kasımpaşa 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.086 / def 1.233 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.103 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Kasımpaşa xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Eyüpspor 0 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 43% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.10x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 33/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
43%
2.30
22%
4.54
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.53
1.65
Kasımpaşa xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
5%
18.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.65 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 14W 8D 11L from 33 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 9L across 33 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.39 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 9W 3D 4L from 16 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.70 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 70%.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 14W 8D 11L in their last 33 games (1.52 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 13D 9L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.88 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Eyüpspor and 62% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Eyüpspor's games and 62% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Eyüpspor's matches and 62% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Eyüpspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Eyüpspor 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.87 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.65 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 34%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.52 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.