Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Eyüpspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.30 for Alanyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Eyüpspor, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Alanyaspor — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Eyüpspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eyüpspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 42% versus Alanyaspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 44% | Alanyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.18 xG and Alanyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.881 / defence 0.944 | Alanyaspor attack 0.911 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.193. Data: 36 Eyüpspor games / 36 Alanyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 39% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 30% | Alanyaspor 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 39% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Eyüpspor 1.18 / Alanyaspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.881 / def 0.944 | Alanyaspor attack 0.911 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Alanyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 39% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 3W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.88x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.91x) against Eyüpspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.45
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.21
1.03
Alanyaspor xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.03 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 9D 19L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.14 PPG from 36 outings (8W 17D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.14 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Eyüpspor's home form reads 5W 4D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (1W 12D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 games (0.92 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 8W 17D 11L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.06 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 39%, Alanyaspor 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eyüpspor) and 44% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Eyüpspor's games and 78% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 44% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.18 xG and Alanyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Alanyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 39% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 32%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 44%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.92 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.