Bodrum FK 2-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodrum FK host Sivasspor at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Bodrum FK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodrum FK have posted 2W 1D 4L at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Bodrum FK) versus 1.10 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 64% of games.
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 29% versus Sivasspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 36% | Sivasspor 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.620 / defence 0.921 | Sivasspor attack 0.980 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.229. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bodrum FK games / 53 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 37% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sivasspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodrum FK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 29% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 37% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Bodrum FK 1.21 / Sivasspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.620 / def 0.921 | Sivasspor attack 0.980 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sivasspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Bodrum FK 2 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 37% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bodrum FK and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Sivasspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.62x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.26
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.32
1.11
Sivasspor xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.11 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodrum FK's recent record stands at 3W 2D 9L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 7L across 14 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sivasspor by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodrum FK have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.43 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Sivasspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Sivasspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 1, Sivasspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Sivasspor 0-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Sivasspor?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodrum FK tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 29%, Sivasspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Bodrum FK) and 71% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 71% of games; Sivasspor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 57% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 71% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodrum FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Sivasspor 2-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.62 / defence 0.92 against Sivasspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 14/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 37% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 32%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 36%, Sivasspor 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Bodrum FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.