Bodrum FK 0-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 21 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodrum FK have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodrum FK have posted 2W 0D 2L at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.25 PPG for Bodrum FK against 0.80 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 38% versus Rizespor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 38% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.71 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.920 / defence 1.019 | Rizespor attack 0.787 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.288. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Bodrum FK games / 46 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 52% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 22%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 4.55. Bodrum FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodrum FK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 50% | Rizespor 40%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 52% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodrum FK 1.71 / Rizespor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.920 / def 1.019 | Rizespor attack 0.787 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Rizespor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Rizespor?
Bodrum FK 0 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Rizespor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 52% chance of winning, Rizespor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodrum FK and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Rizespor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bodrum FK vs Rizespor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.92) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.79x) against Bodrum FK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.93
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.03
Rizespor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
24.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.03 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodrum FK's recent record stands at 3W 1D 4L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Bodrum FK against 0.88 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodrum FK have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Bodrum FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rizespor's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodrum FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.62 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Rizespor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 2.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Rizespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 1, Rizespor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Rizespor 0-2 Bodrum FK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 67%, Rizespor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bodrum FK and 67% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Rizespor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 33% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bodrum FK's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Bodrum FK and Rizespor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Bodrum FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Bodrum FK 0-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.71 xG and Rizespor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bodrum FK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Rizespor attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 52% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 22%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 38%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rizespor's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.