Beşiktaş 2-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hatayspor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Hatayspor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 54% | Hatayspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.44 xG and Hatayspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.961 / defence 0.909 | Hatayspor attack 0.678 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Data: 72 Beşiktaş games / 72 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 51% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Hatayspor 5.56. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 40% | Hatayspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 51% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Beşiktaş 1.44 / Hatayspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.961 / def 0.909 | Hatayspor attack 0.678 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hatayspor xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 51% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Beşiktaş and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.96) and Hatayspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.68x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
51%
1.96
31%
3.26
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.21
0.77
Hatayspor xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
22.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.77 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 72 games, going 39W 16D 17L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.83 PPG from 72 outings (14W 18D 40L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 23W 7D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.53 points per game from 36 outings (4W 7D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.83 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 39W 16D 17L in their last 72 games (1.85 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 14W 18D 40L in their last 72 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Hatayspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.11 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Hatayspor 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beşiktaş) and 56% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Hatayspor in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 31% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Beşiktaş's matches and 56% of Hatayspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, as Beşiktaş and Hatayspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.44 xG and Hatayspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hatayspor outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Hatayspor attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 51% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 18%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 54%, Hatayspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.