Beşiktaş 4-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş at Vodafone Park this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Beşiktaş, 1.70 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 62% versus Fatih Karagümrük 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 51% | Fatih Karagümrük 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.38 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.960 / defence 0.869 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.909 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.312. Data: 40 Beşiktaş games / 39 Fatih Karagümrük games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.57. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Beşiktaş 1.38 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.960 / def 0.869 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.909 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Beşiktaş 4 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 45% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.96) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.91x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (40/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.70
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.42
1.04
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.04 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 15D 9L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.46 PPG from 39 outings (16W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.46 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beşiktaş's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 15W 15D 9L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 16W 9D 14L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.89 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 4-1 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 58%, Fatih Karagümrük 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Beşiktaş) and 58% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 47% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Beşiktaş's matches and 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.38 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.04 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 51%, Fatih Karagümrük 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.