Başakşehir 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Başakşehir welcome Rizespor to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rizespor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Rizespor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 45% | Rizespor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / defence 0.965 | Rizespor attack 0.914 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.192. Data: 56 Başakşehir games / 56 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Başakşehir dominate the H2H record, yet Rizespor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 70% | Rizespor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Başakşehir 1.95 / Rizespor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / def 0.965 | Rizespor attack 0.914 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Rizespor xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Rizespor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Rizespor part of?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Başakşehir and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.95
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.00
1.05
Rizespor xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
38.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.05 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 12D 19L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.32 PPG from 56 outings (21W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.55 PPG, Rizespor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.86 points per game from 28 outings (7W 3D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.20 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 25W 12D 19L in their last 56 games (1.55 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Rizespor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.75 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rizespor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 54%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 68% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rizespor in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Başakşehir's matches and 68% of Rizespor's.
Do Başakşehir and Rizespor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Rizespor 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.05 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Rizespor attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 18%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 45%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rizespor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Rizespor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.