Başakşehir 2-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.25. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 2.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 50% versus Fenerbahçe 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Başakşehir 50% | Fenerbahçe 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 0.60 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.641 / defence 1.167 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.955 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.102. Başakşehir's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Başakşehir games / 4 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 18% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 5.56 | Draw 3.33 | Fenerbahçe 1.96. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Başakşehir's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Fenerbahçe 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 18% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 32% | xG Başakşehir 0.60 / Fenerbahçe 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.641 / def 1.167 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.955 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Fenerbahçe xG
32%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 18% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.60. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
18%
5.47
30%
3.30
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
1.83
1.23
Fenerbahçe xG
5.47
18%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
55%
1.83
Win to Nil
5%
18.66
28%
3.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 19.7 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.23 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 0W 0D 4L from 4 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 0L across 4 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.50 scored and 0.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 25%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 50%, Fenerbahçe 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Başakşehir and 0% for Fenerbahçe.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 75%; Başakşehir have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 25% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Başakşehir's recent games and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fenerbahçe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Fenerbahçe 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 0.60 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.23 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.64 / defence 1.17 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 18% | Draw 30% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Başakşehir win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 50%, Fenerbahçe 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Başakşehir winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.