Başakşehir 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Fatih Karagümrük.

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Fixture Analysis

Başakşehir welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Fatih Karagümrük — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Fatih Karagümrük away from home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.70 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Başakşehir, 2 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Başakşehir 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Fatih Karagümrük 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 70%). Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Başakşehir recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.63 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.085 / defence 0.890 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.161 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.311. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 37 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 29%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.40 | Draw 3.45 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 40% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Başakşehir 37 games, Fatih Karagümrük 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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