Antalyaspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Kayserispor meet at Antalya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 7W 3D 0L at Antalya Stadyumu — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Antalya Stadyumu.
Kayserispor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Antalyaspor's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Kayserispor's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Antalyaspor 0W, Kayserispor 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Kayserispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Kayserispor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Kayserispor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.23 xG and Kayserispor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.215 / defence 0.905 | Kayserispor attack 0.864 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.238. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Antalyaspor games / 33 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 64% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Kayserispor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 50% | Kayserispor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 64% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Antalyaspor 2.23 / Kayserispor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.215 / def 0.905 | Kayserispor attack 0.864 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kayserispor xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 64% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.22x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.86x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.53
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.20
0.97
Kayserispor xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
11%
9.30
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
1%
68.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.97 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 14W 8D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Kayserispor's form line: 11W 9D 13L from 33 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.27 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 2W 5D 9L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.39 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 14W 8D 11L in their last 33 games (1.52 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 11W 9D 13L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.94 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
4
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Kayserispor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Antalyaspor, 69% for Kayserispor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antalyaspor) and 62% (Kayserispor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 69% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antalyaspor's matches and 62% of Kayserispor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, as Antalyaspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.23 xG and Kayserispor 0.97 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Kayserispor attack 0.86 / defence 1.47, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 64% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Kayserispor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.52 PPG, Kayserispor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.