Antalyaspor 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 3 June 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor (all games): 0W 0D 10L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Antalyaspor's favour (1.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Hatayspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 50% | Hatayspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.33 xG and Hatayspor 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.976 / defence 0.967 | Hatayspor attack 0.491 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.435. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Antalyaspor games / 72 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 9%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Hatayspor 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Hatayspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 45% | xG Antalyaspor 2.33 / Hatayspor 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.976 / def 0.967 | Hatayspor attack 0.491 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Hatayspor xG
45%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 74% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antalyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.49x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 3-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
74%
1.34
16%
6.08
9%
10.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.01
0.68
Hatayspor xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.08
16%
Draw
10.93
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
10%
10.28
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
1%
112.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.68 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 19D 27L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.06 PPG from 72 outings (21W 13D 38L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.06 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 17W 9D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.69 points per game from 36 outings (7W 4D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.04 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 26W 19D 27L in their last 72 games (1.35 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 38L in their last 72 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Hatayspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 64%, Hatayspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Antalyaspor and 64% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 36% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Antalyaspor's matches and 64% of Hatayspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.33 xG and Hatayspor 0.68 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Hatayspor attack 0.49 / defence 1.48, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 74% | Draw 16% | Hatayspor 9%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 50%, Hatayspor 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.35 PPG, Hatayspor 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.