Antalyaspor 4-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Giresunspor travel to Antalya Stadyumu to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Antalya Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Antalya Stadyumu.
Giresunspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Giresunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Antalyaspor 1.60 PPG, Giresunspor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 0 for Giresunspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 45% versus Giresunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 45% | Giresunspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.13 xG and Giresunspor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.936 / defence 0.838 | Giresunspor attack 0.785 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.237. Data: 29 Antalyaspor games / 29 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 32% | Giresunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Giresunspor 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 50% | Giresunspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 32% | Giresunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Antalyaspor 1.13 / Giresunspor 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.936 / def 0.838 | Giresunspor attack 0.785 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Giresunspor xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Antalyaspor 4 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Antalyaspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Giresunspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.17
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
1.94
0.81
Giresunspor xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.81 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 10W 8D 11L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Giresunspor's form line: 10W 5D 14L from 29 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.31 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 4W 3D 7L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.07 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Giresunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 10W 5D 14L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.79 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Giresunspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Antalyaspor won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 June 2023, when Giresunspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Giresunspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 57%, Giresunspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 36% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Giresunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 43% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 36% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Giresunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Giresunspor 4-1 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.13 xG and Giresunspor 0.81 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Giresunspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 32% | Giresunspor 26%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 45%, Giresunspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Giresunspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.31 PPG, Giresunspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.