Antalyaspor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Göztepe travel to Antalya Stadyumu to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.35 xG and Göztepe 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Göztepe attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 0.810. Data: 0 Antalyaspor games / 0 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 50% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Göztepe 4.55. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 50% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Antalyaspor 1.35 / Göztepe 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Göztepe attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.386 / away 0.810 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Göztepe xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Antalyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Antalyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Göztepe in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.55
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
Göztepe xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.79 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Pre-Season
Göztepe
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Göztepe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Göztepe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 0, Göztepe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Antalyaspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Göztepe finished level at 1-1 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.35 xG and Göztepe 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Göztepe attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 50% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 22%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.