Antalyaspor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Antalyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Başakşehir's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.10 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Antalyaspor have won 1, Başakşehir 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Antalyaspor 0–0 Başakşehir — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus Başakşehir 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 42% | Başakşehir 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.11 xG and Başakşehir 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.902 / defence 0.964 | Başakşehir attack 0.732 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.164. Başakşehir's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 45 games and Başakşehir's last 45.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.53 | Draw 2.75 | Başakşehir 4.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 10 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.11 / Başakşehir 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.902 / def 0.964 | Başakşehir attack 0.732 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Başakşehir xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 10) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 45 games and Başakşehir's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
40%
2.53
36%
2.75
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
1.94
0.82
Başakşehir xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.82 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 13W 11D 21L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 15L across 45 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 9W 5D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.31 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won Antalyaspor 0-4 Başakşehir.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2026: Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 54%, Başakşehir 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 36% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Başakşehir in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 41% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 36% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 64% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.11 xG and Başakşehir 0.82 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Başakşehir attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 42%, Başakşehir 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.