Antalyaspor 1-0 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Altay fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Altay travel to Antalya Stadyumu to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Antalya Stadyumu, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Altay stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Antalyaspor 1.10 PPG, Altay 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Altay in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 64% and Altay 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Altay 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.58 xG and Altay 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.905 / defence 1.430 | Altay attack 1.017 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.100. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Antalyaspor games / 11 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 38% | Draw 24% | Altay 38%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Altay 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 83% | Altay 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 38% | Draw 24% | Altay 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Antalyaspor 1.58 / Altay 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.905 / def 1.430 | Altay attack 1.017 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Altay xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Altay kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Altay kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Altay?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Altay.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Altay part of?
Antalyaspor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Altay a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Antalyaspor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Altay?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Altay in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Altay (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Altay's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.20
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.60
Altay xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.60 for Altay, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay's form line: 5W 1D 5L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.09 PPG, Altay on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Altay have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Altay in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Altay in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Altay have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Altay away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.20 PPG; Altay away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Altay runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Altay have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Altay 1-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Altay?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Antalyaspor at 80%, Altay at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Antalyaspor and 100% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Altay?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Antalyaspor's games and 100% of Altay's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Antalyaspor's matches and 100% of Altay's.
Do Antalyaspor and Altay tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Altay in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Altay 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Altay 1-0 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.58 xG and Altay 1.60 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Altay landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.43 against Altay attack 1.02 / defence 1.44, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 38% | Draw 24% | Altay 38%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Altay 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Altay's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.09 PPG, Altay 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.