Amed vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amed host Kasımpaşa at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Amed) versus 1.60 (Kasımpaşa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Amed in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 33% versus Kasımpaşa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amed 67% | Kasımpaşa 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.51 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.122 / defence 0.962 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 46% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 29%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 3.45. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Amed 33% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 46% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Amed 1.51 / Kasımpaşa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.122 / def 0.962 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Amed (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Kasımpaşa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Amed vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Amed vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 46% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Amed and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Kasımpaşa in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.12x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.91
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Amed xG
Total xG
2.65
1.14
Kasımpaşa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Amed and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Amed and 1.14 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amed come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amed on 2.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Amed or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 33%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Amed and 0% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 33%; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Amed's recent games and 0% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.