Amed vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Göztepe travel to Diyarbakir Stadium to take on Amed. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 December 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amed stand at 5W 2D 1L from 8 Süper Lig matches — 2.12 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 0L across 5 games at Diyarbakir Stadium this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.12 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Amed are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.92 PPG ahead (2.12 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Amed trading profile (8 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Göztepe trading profile (8 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amed 50% and Göztepe 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 75% | Göztepe 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.20 xG and Göztepe 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.356 / defence 0.899 | Göztepe attack 1.489 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Göztepe have an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Amed games / 42 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 52% | Draw 20% | Göztepe 28%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.92 | Draw 5.00 | Göztepe 3.57. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Amed 40% | Göztepe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 52% | Draw 20% | Göztepe 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Amed 2.20 / Göztepe 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.356 / def 0.899 | Göztepe attack 1.489 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Amed (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Göztepe xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Göztepe kick off?
Amed vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Göztepe part of?
Amed vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 52% chance of winning, Göztepe a 28% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Amed and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Göztepe in?
Amed (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amed's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
52%
1.93
20%
4.89
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Amed xG
Total xG
3.79
1.59
Göztepe xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
3%
32.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Amed and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Amed and 1.59 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Amed have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 5W 2D 1L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amed have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.12 PPG overall record — Göztepe travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amed are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 2.12 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 75%.
Defensively: Amed have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Göztepe away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Amed or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Göztepe in 12%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 40%, Göztepe 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Amed and 100% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Amed's games and 80% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amed vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Amed's matches and 100% of Göztepe's.
Do Amed and Göztepe tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.