Alanyaspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Alanyaspor welcome Yeni Malatyaspor to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Yeni Malatyaspor's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 8.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 6–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Yeni Malatyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 56% | Yeni Malatyaspor 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.74 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.178 / defence 1.508 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.462 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.268. Yeni Malatyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Yeni Malatyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Yeni Malatyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 80% | Yeni Malatyaspor 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Yeni Malatyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Alanyaspor 1.74 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.178 / def 1.508 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.462 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 56% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.18) and Yeni Malatyaspor's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.87
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.62
0.88
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
32.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.88 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 15W 7D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form line: 5W 5D 24L from 34 games, 0.59 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Alanyaspor are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yeni Malatyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 2D 13L from 17 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.74 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Yeni Malatyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 5W 5D 24L in their last 34 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.47 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 65%, Yeni Malatyaspor 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Alanyaspor) and 18% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor in 76%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 12% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 18% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-1 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.74 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.88 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.18 / defence 1.51 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.46 / defence 1.22, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Yeni Malatyaspor 18%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 56%, Yeni Malatyaspor 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.