Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Konyaspor travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 0.90 PPG, Konyaspor 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Alanyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Konyaspor have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 56% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.877 / defence 1.015 | Konyaspor attack 0.854 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.317. Data: 57 Alanyaspor games / 57 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Konyaspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Alanyaspor 1.41 / Konyaspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.877 / def 1.015 | Konyaspor attack 0.854 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Konyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 5W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.88x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
39%
2.54
34%
2.95
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.55
1.14
Konyaspor xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.14 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 20D 21L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 17W 15D 25L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.19 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 5D 17L from 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.46 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Konyaspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 68% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 54% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.19 PPG, Konyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.