Alanyaspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Alanyaspor take on Fatih Karagümrük.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.00 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 51% versus Fatih Karagümrük 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Fatih Karagümrük 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.985 / defence 1.020 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.966 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.281. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 43 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 34% | Draw 34% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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