Alanyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Beşiktaş at GAIN Park Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's home record at GAIN Park Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beşiktaş — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beşiktaş in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Beşiktaş 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Beşiktaş 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Beşiktaş 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.927 / defence 1.002 | Beşiktaş attack 0.938 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.658 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 Alanyaspor games / 71 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 41%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 60% | Beşiktaş 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Alanyaspor 0.97 / Beşiktaş 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.927 / def 1.002 | Beşiktaş attack 0.938 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Beşiktaş xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.40
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.14
1.17
Beşiktaş xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.17 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 24D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.61 PPG from 71 outings (32W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.27 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 12D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.29 points per game from 35 outings (11W 12D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.48 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 22W 24D 25L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 32W 18D 21L in their last 71 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 63%, Beşiktaş 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Alanyaspor) and 40% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Alanyaspor's games and 57% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 40% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Beşiktaş 1.17 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 0.66, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 41%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Beşiktaş 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.27 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.