Alanyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Beşiktaş at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Alanyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Alanyaspor have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 2 for Beşiktaş and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2023, ended Alanyaspor 3–1 Beşiktaş — a Alanyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 55% versus Beşiktaş 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 63% | Beşiktaş 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Beşiktaş have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.78 xG and Beşiktaş 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.243 / defence 1.096 | Beşiktaş attack 0.929 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 71 games and Beşiktaş's last 71.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.76 | Beşiktaş 3.93. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 36 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.78 / Beşiktaş 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.243 / def 1.096 | Beşiktaş attack 0.929 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 36) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 71 games and Beşiktaş's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.76
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.26
Beşiktaş xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.26 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 71 games, going 23W 21D 27L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.86 PPG from 71 outings (39W 15D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 15W 10D 10L across their last 35 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 35 away games (16W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.77 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 23W 21D 27L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 39W 15D 17L in their last 71 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.57 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won Beşiktaş 4-1 Alanyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 54%, Beşiktaş 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Alanyaspor and 54% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Alanyaspor's games and 57% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Alanyaspor's matches and 54% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 89% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, as Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.78 xG and Beşiktaş 1.26 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Beşiktaş attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 25%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 63%, Beşiktaş 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.