Adana Demirspor 0-2 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 6L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Adana Demirspor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Yeni Malatyaspor's 0.75 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Yeni Malatyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 62% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 62% | Yeni Malatyaspor 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.66 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.156 / defence 1.045 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.607 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.127. Data: 8 Adana Demirspor games / 8 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 60% | Draw 24% | Yeni Malatyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Yeni Malatyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 60% | Draw 24% | Yeni Malatyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.66 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.156 / def 1.045 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.607 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 2 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 60% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-6L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Yeni Malatyaspor's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.61x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.14
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.37
0.71
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
3%
32.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.71 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 3D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (2W 0D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.88 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 25%.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
2
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Adana Demirspor) and 0% (Yeni Malatyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Adana Demirspor) and 33% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Yeni Malatyaspor in 33%; Yeni Malatyaspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 33% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yeni Malatyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yeni Malatyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.66 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Yeni Malatyaspor outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.61 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 60% | Draw 24% | Yeni Malatyaspor 16%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Yeni Malatyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 62%, Yeni Malatyaspor 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Yeni Malatyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.