Uthai Thani 4-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Prachuap travel to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to take on Uthai Thani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 1.30 PPG, Prachuap 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Uthai Thani have won 2, Prachuap 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Uthai Thani trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 64% versus Prachuap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 50% | Prachuap 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.30 xG and Prachuap 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.360 / defence 1.063 | Prachuap attack 1.058 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.224. Uthai Thani carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Uthai Thani games / 44 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 20%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Prachuap 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 80% | Prachuap 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Uthai Thani 2.30 / Prachuap 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.360 / def 1.063 | Prachuap attack 1.058 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Prachuap xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Uthai Thani 4 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap part of?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 56% chance of winning, Prachuap a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Uthai Thani and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Record (4 meetings): Uthai Thani 2W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.36x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.26
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.67
1.38
Prachuap xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
10%
9.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
2%
49.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.38 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 12W 15D 17L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 16W 14D 14L from 44 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.16 PPG, Prachuap on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.57 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Prachuap away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.43 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Prachuap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Prachuap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 62%, Prachuap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Uthai Thani) and 43% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 62% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 43% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Prachuap tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Prachuap 4-0 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.30 xG and Prachuap 1.38 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.36 / defence 1.06 against Prachuap attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 20%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Prachuap 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.16 PPG, Prachuap 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.