Uthai Thani 7-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Uthai Thani welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Uthai Thani are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 2–3 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 64% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 48% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.999 / defence 1.176 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.801 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.221. Data: 42 Uthai Thani games / 42 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 45% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.17. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 90% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 45% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Uthai Thani 1.61 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.999 / def 1.176 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.801 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Uthai Thani 7 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 45% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (2 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.21
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.76
1.15
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
20.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.15 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 15D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 0.93 PPG from 42 outings (8W 15D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.14 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 7W 10D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.02 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 8W 15D 19L in their last 42 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.41 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Uthai Thani won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 68%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Uthai Thani) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Uthai Thani's games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7-0 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 5.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 45% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 48%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.14 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.