Suphanburi 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Suphanburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Suphanburi have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Suphanburi's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Suphanburi, 1.50 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suphanburi have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Suphanburi 0W, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Suphanburi half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 61% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 56% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.40 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.982 / defence 1.303 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.867 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.102. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Suphanburi games / 19 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suphanburi 41% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Suphanburi at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suphanburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 62% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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