Sukhothai FC 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 outings — a 0.86 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (0.67 PPG). 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.10 PPG return is 1.24 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.86 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Sukhothai FC's 0% and Ratchaburi's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sukhothai FC 29% | Ratchaburi 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sukhothai FC 29% | Ratchaburi 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.59 xG and Ratchaburi 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.561 / defence 1.034 | Ratchaburi attack 1.135 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.149. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.561 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Sukhothai FC games / 36 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 16% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 55%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Ratchaburi 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Sukhothai FC's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 0% | Ratchaburi 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 16% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.59 / Ratchaburi 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.561 / def 1.034 | Ratchaburi attack 1.135 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ratchaburi xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 16% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.56x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 0-2 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
16%
6.17
28%
3.53
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
1.94
1.35
Ratchaburi xG
6.17
16%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
4%
23.73
31%
3.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 19.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.35 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 6W 1D 0L from 7 games, 2.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 1.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.43 scored and 0.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 29%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Ratchaburi in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 (2.71 PPG).
Have Sukhothai FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sukhothai FC 29% BTTS, Ratchaburi 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Sukhothai FC and 14% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 71%; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 29% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 14% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.59 xG and Ratchaburi 1.35 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.56 / defence 1.03 against Ratchaburi attack 1.14 / defence 0.81, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 16% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 55%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sukhothai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 29%, Ratchaburi 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.